Obesity rates slowing in high-income countries – but not in lower-income nations 

A comprehensive analysis of global trends since the 1980s shows that the rise in obesity has slowed in many high-income countries. In several cases, prevalence has stabilised and may even be declining. However, the same trend has not been observed in lower-income countries. The findings have been published in Nature. 
The analysis draws on more than four decades of health data from 200 countries and territories between 1980 and 2024. The study was led by researchers at Imperial College London. Co-authors include Annika Rosengren, Senior physician at Sahlgrenska University Hospital and Professor of Medicine, and Jenny Kindblom, Professor and obesity researcher, both at the University of Gothenburg.

The results present a more nuanced picture than previous reports. While obesity rates increased sharply during the late twentieth century, the rise has now slowed or plateaued in most high-income countries.

The stabilisation first became apparent among school-aged children around the turn of the millennium, followed by adults roughly a decade later. In some high-income countries, including France, Italy and Portugal, obesity prevalence may even have started to decline.

The researchers argue that it is no longer appropriate to speak of a single global obesity epidemic, as trends vary substantially between countries. While rates have stabilised in many Western nations, obesity continues to increase across numerous low- and middle-income countries, particularly in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and island nations in the Pacific and Caribbean regions.

Differences between countries are influenced by factors such as the availability and affordability of healthy food. The researchers are less convinced, however, that anti-obesity medications have had a measurable impact at population level. 
Among the study’s most important findings is that improvements in high-income countries generally appeared first among children and adolescents. The analysis also shows that obesity prevalence can change relatively quickly over time. These insights may help guide targeted interventions in areas such as public health and food policy.

Denmark was the first country to show a documented slowdown in obesity rates among children and young people, around 1990. Other European countries, including Iceland, Switzerland, Belgium and Germany, followed during the 1990s. 
By the mid-2000s, obesity rates among schoolchildren and adolescents had begun to stabilise in most high-income countries, and in some cases had started to decline. According to the data included in the analysis, exceptions appeared to include Australia, Finland and Sweden.

“Unfortunately, it is not possible to confirm or rule out whether this accurately reflects the situation in Sweden,” says Annika Rosengren, citing the challenges of obtaining comprehensive national data on obesity prevalence.

Although younger children in Sweden are routinely measured and weighed through school health services, these data are not always made available for research purposes. Several of the Swedish co-authors also point to the risk of inaccuracies in self-reported height and weight data among older children. 
“What we do know is that there are substantial regional differences in obesity prevalence across Sweden, and that childhood obesity remains one of the most common physical health conditions, carrying a high risk of continued ill health throughout life,” says Annika Rosengren.

Study

Obesity rise plateaus in developed nations and accelerates in developing nations

Source: University of Gothenburg